U SAD se pripremaju za jesenju sezonu gripa
Istraživači u Sjedinjenim Državama se užurbano pripremaju za predstojeću sezonu gripa, koja obično počinje krajem oktobra, mada bi ove godine mogla da počne i ranije. Testiraju se vakcine protiv virusa H1N1, a Svjetska zdravstvena organizacija očekuje da će veća količina biti spremna na vrijeme. Istraživači upoređuju virus svinjskog gripa sa virusom koji je izazvao pandemiju španskog gripa, 1918. godine. Fakultet za javno zdravlje „Džons Hopkins Blumberg“ je centar u kojem neki od vodećih naučnika istražuju virus koji mutira i zaštitne mjere koje se preduzimaju.
Svjetska zdravstvena organizacija je potvrdila da je kod gotovo 100 hiljada ljudi u svijetu dijagnosticirana svinjska gripa – odnosno virus H1N1. Međutim, brojni epidemiolozi kažu da najvjerovatnije postoje milioni nepotvrđenih slučajeva. Ove jeseni, tokom sezone gripa, razboljeće se još više ljudi u sjevernoj hemisferi – ali još nije jasno kolika će biti stvarna opasnost od virusa. Endru Pekoš, profesor mikrobiologije i imunologije na Univerzitetu „Džons Hopkins“, zapazio je da virus H1N1 ima neke sličnosti sa pandemijom španskog gripa iz 1918. godine, za koju se smatra da je zahvatila jednu trećinu svjetske populacije i izazvala smrt najmanje 50 miliona ljudi. Ali, njegovo istraživanje novog tipa virusa pokazuje da je malo vjerovatno da će se se takav scenario ponoviti.
„Ovogodišnjem virusu gripe H1N1 nedostaju neke od glavnih karakteristika infektivnosti ili uzročnika bolesti, koje je imala zaraza 1918. godine. Zato mislim da je malo vjerovatno da ovaj virus mutira i postane smrtonosan kao onaj iz 1918.“
Međutim, doktor Pekoš upozorava da je velika vjerovatnoća da će virus H1N1 ove jeseni biti uzročnik većine slučajeva gripa u sjevernoj hemisferi.
„Ako pogledamo južnu hemisferu, koja je upravo sada usred sezone gripa, vidimo da je zaraza počela ranije, da ima više slučajeva i da se virus širi brže nego u običnoj sezoni gripa. Zato ne postoji razlog zbog kojeg ne bi trebalo da očekujemo da će se to dogoditi kada vrijeme postane hladnije i uslovi za prenošenje gripa budu optimalniji.“
Svaka vrsta gripa ima različite karakteristike i pogađa različite grupe populacije. Virusu iz 1918.g., podleglo je više zdravih mladih ljudi nego mnogim prethodnim zarazama – skoro polovina žrtava imala je od 20 do 40 godina. Ova pojava pokazuje neke znake sopstvenog ponavljanja – stariji ljudi, koji su tradicionalno žrtve gripa, bolje odolijevaju virusu H1N1, vjerovatno zato što im se s godinama povećao imunitet.
„Postoje neki dokazi da ovaj virus napada mlade, zdrave odrasle osobe, više nego ostalu populaciju. Izvjesno je da bolest ima teži oblik kod djece i trudnica. To znači da bi neki dijelovi populacije trebalo da budu oprezniji uoči predstojeće sezone gripa.“
Izvor: VoA News
www.medicina.ba
2009-09-01
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